NIFTY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK -12Nov2011 (Weekend Analysis)

• Towards upside 200 DMA would be the resistance and a turnaround in long term trend along hesitancy of bulls would alter once this will get passed upside. The respective value for this comes around 5391.  
• The  medium term moving average of 50 DMA at 5058 would  be the immediate  support  for index.  
• Any major downside can drag index towards 4720 levels would be the decisive support and any fall below those would ask for a major downside. But probabilities as of now are very low for such a fall since those levels had already proven its credibility twice before the recent leap toward 5400 levels.  
• Earlier 5170 levels had earlier acted as a stiff resistance and bulls had breached those levels in  the previous day’s trade. Anyhow that breakout was not much utilized by bulls and now again  reached below that resistance.  
• A trendline plotted by joining significant few lower bottoms would provide resistance around  5480 levels.  
• ADX indicator which indicates the strength of the trend regardless of the direction is descending downside after few days of consolidation and this is indicating that the ongoing trend is without enough strength or direction hence a turnaround in a trend towards any of the either direction could happen soon.   
• MACD oscillator which was on going with a positive  crossing for the past many trading sessions is supposed to give a negative crossing over its respective average indicating the fading positive trend. In this indicator sell signals are triggered when MACD line crosses below the nine-day EMA of the MACD.  
• A long term channel which was breached both upside and downside had now reached back into action. Index last week had approaches the lower channel band which is a resistance. A  breaching of this resistance and getting inside the channel over again gives bulls chances for a 650 points move from there which will be almost 6200 in Nifty. The breakout point comes around 5500. 
• Stochastic oscillator and RSI are ongoing with lower tops formation and edging downside. Both  the indicators are in the neutral zone. Hence a trend wont get derived based on these indicators.  
• Towards upside 5325 -5390-5400 levels would be the immediate resistance while 5080-5030-5010 would be the support