"What does it mean to think in probabilities?"

"What does it mean to think in probabilities?"

It means to believe at the very core of our identity that:

anything can happen
every moment is unique
there is a random distribution between wins and losses on any given set of variables that define an edge

Each one of these beliefs will keep your expectations in line with what is possible from the markets perspective.   To the extent your expectations correspond with what is possible from the markets perspective, you eliminate the potential to define and interpret market information as painful.

Ultimately ~ you can get to the point where you can trade from a "carefree" and "objective" state of mind where you are making yourself available to perceive and act upon whatever the market is offering you in any given "now" moment from its perspective."


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1.Each trading result generated from pattern is random and unique.

2.There is no relationship from pattern and outcome.

3There is no corelelation ship between pattern and risk.

4.Technical method will give winning percentage over series of trade.

5.I am dependent on some body else to make me a winner.so stoploss is essential.

6.Pattern - whem this set of criteria there is higher proabilities one thing over another.

7.When pattern present itself => there is no points analyzing the pattern.

8.It required no skills to be winner.

9.Trading in the markets is an odds game, and the object is always keep the odds in your favor .

10.Proper execution of signal require mental skills.

11.Technical method are  designed to put odd in our favor over a series of trade. we will never know sequence of win and losses .

12.Trading in its simplest form, is a pattern recognition
numbers game. We use market analysis to identify the patterns, define the risk, and determine when to take profits. The trade either works or it doesn't. In any case, we go on to die next trade. It's that simple.

13.There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge. In other words, based on the past performance of your edge, you may know that out of the next 20 trades, 12 will be winners and 8 will be losers. What you don’t know is the sequence of wins and losses or how much money the market is going to make available on the winning trades. This truth makes trading a probability or numbers game. When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like ‘right’ and ‘wrong’ or ‘win’ and ‘lose’ no longer have the same significance. As a result, your expectations will be in harmony with the possibilities. - Mark Douglas: ‘Trading in the Zone’

14.I know it may sound strange to many readers, but there is an inverse relationship between analysis and trading results. More analysis or being able to make distinctions in the market’s behavior will not produce better trading results. There are many traders who find themselves caught in this exasperating loop, thinking that more or better analysis is going to give them the confidence they need to do what needs to be done to achieve success. It’s what I call a trading paradox that most traders find difficult, if not impossible to reconcile, until they realize you can’t use analysis to overcome fear of being wrong or losing money. It just doesn’t work!” – Mark Douglas

15.To whatever degree you haven’t accepted the risk, is the same degree to which you will avoid the risk. Trying to avoid something that is unavoidable will have disastrous effects on your ability to trade successfully. – Mark Douglas

16.The less I cared about whether or not I was wrong, the clearer
things became, making it much easier to move in and out of positions,
cutting my losses short to make myself mentally available to take the next opportunity.
- Mark Douglas -

17. If you really believe in an uncertain outcome, then you also have to expect that virtually anything can happen. Otherwise, the moment you let your mind hold onto the notion that you know, you stop taking all of the unknown variables into consideration. Your mind won’t let you have it both ways. If you believe you know something, the moment is no longer unique. – Mark Douglas


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